Scotland’s house prices dip after post referendum boost

Residential property prices in Scotland fell 0.1% in November, reversing October’s uplift in the wake of the independence referendum vote, the latest index shows.

There was also a slowdown in annual growth to 4.3%, less than half the 10.6% yearly rise across England and Wales, according to the Your Move/Acadata index.

It takes the average house price to £164,607 and sales were up 6% annually in November, however the data shows that a quarter of all activity was concentrated in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

But prices in Midlothian have seen their highest annual jump, up 10% with this being put down to a 30% leap in local first time buyer sales.

According to Christine Campbell, regional managing director of Your Move, the Scottish property market is only just starting to recalibrate after the temporary disruption of the referendum.

‘The immediate feel good factor following the vote led to an artificially upbeat October, but the dust is settling. Average house prices across Scotland dipped as normal business resumed and familiar market trends reappear,’ she explained.

The data shows that overall, property values fell in over half of Scotland’s local authority areas in November and it means annual house price growth in Scotland is currently lagging well below the pace being set across England and Wales.

‘However the underlying upwards momentum is robust. Scottish property values have climbed a healthy 4.3% in the year to November, equal to £6,750 on average. In the last 12 months, fourth fifths of the nation’s local authorities have witnessed increases in house values,’ Campbell pointed out.

‘But the overwhelming majority of Scotland is experiencing annual property price growth in excess of inflation. The lion’s share of home owners are enjoying real tangible growth in the value of their home beyond the 1% Consumer Price Index rate of inflation,’ Campbell said.

‘For example, the highest annual leap in values was found in Midlothian, with prices soaring 10%, more than double the wider nationwide average. Here, prices have been driven up by a considerable 30% uplift in sales of flats and terraced properties in the past 12 months. This burst of activity has pushed the typical cost of a flat in the area to £120,000, up from £100,000 a year ago,’ she explained.
 
She also pointed out that while prices may have slipped back on a monthly basis, activity is still making stable progress. ‘This has been the strongest November for sales in seven years, with transactions up 6% on 2013. As first time buyers continue to pour into the market, the most frequently purchased type of property in Scotland are flats, with sales of this type of property growing 9% year on year in the three months to November 2014,’ said Campbell.

‘Argyll and Bute saw the biggest monthly jump in prices, up 5.8% since October, and this was propelled by a 24% annual surge in sales in the three months to November 2014, including a 50% climb in flat transactions. In 2014 overall sales to the end of November are 14% higher than the same period a year ago,’ she added.

But there is still plenty of room for improvement as a lot of activity has been concentrated in Edinburgh and Glasgow and Campbell said that together these two cities account for almost a quarter of all sales in Scotland.

Furthermore, sales levels are still only at 65% of the average between 2004 and 2007, before the financial crisis. She believes that before the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) is introduced in April, sales above £254,000 may be boosted in the short term, as buyers try to avoid the higher tax bills.

‘But this is a relatively small portion of the market, representing only 14% of home sales in 2014, and for the vast majority of buyers, the changes are unlikely to alter purchases plans considerably, as any savings are minimal,’ Campbell added.