Brazil can weather the downturn

Emerging markets will not be immune from the global credit crisis and countries like Brazil are expected to see considerable downturn in growth.

According to the latest assessment by the International Monetary Fund growth in Brazil, which has been a strong 5 to 6%, is now expected to be 3.5% in 2009.

This is likely to have a major impact on its growing property market but the IMF analysts do not expect a collapse as Brazil has strong economic fundamentals.

'No country is immune. Six months ago some analysts were claiming that emerging countries would be immune from the financial crisis. We did not believe these arguments and we have always said no part of the world was immune,' said Dominique Strauss-Khan from IMF.

'There may be some delay or some decrease in the strength of the waves which hurt the emerging countries, but there will be some consequences,' he added.

The IMF believes that the economic policy in Brazil was the right policy and a lot of reserves have been accumulated.

'Brazil is an economy in good shape. But even in good shape, the effect of the downturn in global growth will have consequences,' he said. He added that for some countries 3.5% growth would be a success but for Brazil it represents a major decline.

Growth in 2009 for advanced economies is predicted at zero so 100% of world growth will come from emerging markets. The IMF also expects recovery to start at the end of 2009.

However property experts do not believe that the property market in Brazil will suffer. 'Northeast Brazil in particular has an aggressive and sustainable real estate environment with unmatched rental and resale potential,' said Samantha Gore, Head of Sales and Marketing for uv10.com.

'The domestic market is producing some serious home-grown wealth with many nationals keen to get on the property ladder and purchase second homes in popular resorts. In fact, recent estimates suggest that around 80,000 homes will have to be built in the northeast region alone to cater to the existing demand. There is still a huge interest from foreigners and tourism is expected to continue to grow by more than 4% a year for at least the next ten years,' she added.

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