The UK housing market faces renewed political instability as questions mount over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s tenure, with widespread speculation that he may not remain in office beyond the end of 2024. The situation follows a pattern of leadership changes that have historically impacted market activity, including the departures of Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, noted the parallels with previous transitions. “The prime minister has a mandate from 14 million people to get a job done was a familiar-sounding comment made days before Boris Johnson left office in July 2022,” he said.
According to Bill, several potential triggers could precipitate a leadership change, including a poor result at the Gorton and Denton by-election, further revelations about government appointments, or weak local election results in May. Until a formal leadership challenge occurs, the implications for housing policy and taxation remain uncertain.
Market performance during leadership transitions
Recent data from RICS, Nationwide, and Halifax indicated improving house prices and demand in January, though these reports preceded the current political turbulence surrounding Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador.
Historical data shows that prime ministerial resignations have typically caused temporary declines in mortgage approvals and new buyer registrations. However, Bill emphasised that political factors cannot be assessed in isolation from mortgage costs, which are influenced by five-year swap rates.
“A spike in borrowing costs sent demand lower and ushered in the departure of Liz Truss in October 2022, but housing market activity was supported in early 2023 as rates initially fell back,” Bill explained. “And when Theresa May resigned in June 2019, the availability of sub-2% five-year fixed-rate mortgages softened the blow.”
Interest rate outlook
Bill suggested that any successor government would be concerned about replicating the bond market reaction experienced during Liz Truss’s brief tenure. Starmer has cited this risk as justification for remaining in office, arguing that increased government spending could pressure borrowing costs upward.
The analyst noted that the Labour Party is expected to shift leftward politically to satisfy its parliamentary members, with the identity of a new Chancellor potentially proving more significant for fiscal policy and housing than the prime minister’s identity.
Despite recent increases in rates, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have grown following this month’s monetary policy meeting. Weak labour market and inflation data released this week have increased the likelihood of a cut next month and another before December, which could support buyer demand through the period of political transition.
The housing market’s short-term trajectory will depend on the interplay between political developments at Westminster and the broader interest rate environment in the coming months.
