Jamie Hope is managing director of sales at Maskells
There was a time, not so long ago, when pricing a central London property 10% above its likely value was not only defensible, but often rewarded. In a rising market, ambition had a habit of being validated. Momentum did the work. The right buyer would appear at the right moment, often motivated by having lost out elsewhere, and would stretch beyond what felt sensible only weeks earlier.
That market has gone. What remains, however, is the habit.
Data from our friends at LonRes show that across the £5m to £10m market in our core area, there are currently 182 houses for sale. Just 13 are under offer, 7% of available stock. That statistic alone says a great deal. This is not a market surging forward. It is one pausing, assessing and presenting buyers who are highly selective and cautious.
Yet we continue to see valuations based on yesterday’s prices presented as today’s reality. The difficulty is that buyers have moved on. They are no longer underwriting past performance and know they can wait 1, 2 or 3 years and pay less.
So, prices based on values 6 or 12 months ago, no longer hold water. Whether that proves true is almost secondary. The belief itself shapes behaviour.
In previous cycles, we could operate within a 10 to 15% valuation range and rely on the market to close the gap. There was elasticity. Even if a property launched slightly ahead of its true level, activity would often build and negotiations would narrow the distance. The market had depth and confidence.
Today, that elasticity has thinned considerably. The 10% margin is a thing of the past. Our experience of high pricing is that eventually, a buyer offers low, and without competing offers, will stick at that level, and this is where the deal is done, with the seller fatigued with having been on the market for a long period.
They are selling on buyers’ terms. Even an asking price aligned with values from six or twelve months ago now feels ambitions. Extracting offers at those levels is increasingly difficult. As one buying agent said to me last year, “We have never seen a market where it is so easy to get an offer accepted, yet so hard to persuade a buyer to actually make one.”
It was an astute observation. Sellers may be willing to engage, but buyers are far more selective about when, and whether, they step forward. Asking prices must be tempting – they must show tomorrow’s value.
Overvaluation at launch remains widespread. Some of it is agent driven, but much of it is seller led, with many sellers having not sold for 10+ years, when the market was fundamentally different. The rules of the game have changed and we as agents must be ambassadors to this principle.
When a property is launched at a level that feels sharp, sometimes even slightly uncomfortable, the dynamic shifts. Activity concentrates. Interest hardens. So far this year, the sales we have agreed have involved an average of 2.3 buyers competing at the point of offer acceptance – competition has been exclusively on the keenly priced properties and we have achieved or exceeded the asking price on most of these sales.
In this environment, competition is rarely accidental. It is the result of disciplined pricing from day one. The average gap between asking price and agreed price on our deals in 2026, is just 2%. And this is a trend that has been creeping in – over the last 3 years, our average gap is just 3% between asking price (at the point of sale) and sold price. This is against a current market average of sale prices being -12.7% below initial asking price, with 52% of properties on the market reduced and 76% having been on the market for 3 months or more (55% for over 6 months), again thanks to data from LonRes.
The era of the comfortable 10% cushion has passed. In its place is something leaner and more exacting: a market where credibility matters more than optimism, and where the margin between asking and achieved price, when handled correctly, is closer to 2% than 10.
We all get it wrong sometimes. No valuation is perfect. But in a market defined by scrutiny and selectivity, the advantage lies with those prepared to prioritise accuracy over aspiration.
Fortune favours the brave and this is a mantra we have been supporting for several years. About once a month, there is a sale that raises eyebrows in central London – we were lucky enough to handle one of these recently. Where comparables triangulated fair value at around £5m. We advised marketing at £4.5m. There were 50+ viewings in 4 weeks and 7 buyers competed – the house achieved over £5.4m.
The 2% club may be less forgiving, but it is where the strongest outcomes are now being achieved.
