UK property transactions fell 41% in March 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, according to figures released by HMRC, reflecting the market’s return to normal levels following last year’s stamp duty deadline rush.
The data shows 104,070 completed residential deals in March 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, though this represents a 1% increase compared to February 2026. The non-seasonally adjusted figure stood at 101,070 transactions, 39% lower year-on-year but 16% higher than the previous month.
The sharp annual decline follows a surge in transactions in March 2025, when buyers rushed to complete purchases ahead of stamp duty threshold reductions that took effect in April 2025.
Estate agents face growing inventory backlog
Research from comparison platform GetAgent indicates that estate agents are experiencing a slowdown in stock turnover, with the proportion of inventory converting to sales declining across most regions. In England, the average monthly sales turnover rate has decreased from 17% in April 2025 to 14% in April 2026.
Colby Short, co-founder and CEO at GetAgent, said: “At a headline level, there’s still plenty of activity in the market, but the pace at which homes are selling has clearly slowed over the last year. That’s leaving many agents with pipelines that look healthy on paper, but take longer to convert into completed deals, which puts real pressure on time, resources and ultimately cashflow.”
Market observers divided on outlook
Industry analysts offered varying interpretations of the data. Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen, described April as particularly challenging for the sector. “By historic standards, this slowdown in deals is significant at a particularly delicate moment for the market,” he said. “The housing market is absorbing an extraordinary number of shocks at once.”
Anthony Codling, managing director of equity research at RBC Capital Markets, provided a more measured assessment. “At 104,070 seasonally adjusted transactions, the UK market looks almost normal – 5% above the five-year average and 1.3% up month-on-month,” he said. “But context is everything. The 41% year-on-year collapse isn’t a sign the housing market has fallen off a cliff, it’s the ghost of April 2025’s stamp duty threshold changes.”
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, highlighted external factors affecting market sentiment. “The impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK housing market is now unmistakeable,” he said. “The 41% drop in transactions in March came at a time when momentum is normally building. The initial shock has faded but mortgage rates have jumped around in recent weeks given the confused outlook around the length of the conflict and to what extent it could escalate.”
Implications for property professionals
The transaction data arrives as the property sector navigates multiple challenges, including ongoing legislative changes affecting landlords and broader economic uncertainty. The slower conversion rates reported by estate agents suggest that whilst buyer interest remains present, the path to completion is taking longer than in previous periods.
The figures indicate that whilst March 2026 transactions appear subdued on an annual comparison basis, the monthly improvement and performance relative to five-year averages suggest the market is stabilising following the artificial spike created by last year’s stamp duty changes. However, the decline in sales turnover rates points to a more cautious market environment where housing supply and demand dynamics continue to evolve.
