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Rebound in property prices in Sydney and Melbourne in first month of 2016

The recent growth conditions have pushed the Melbourne property market into first place for annual growth with an 11% rise compared with Sydney where values were 10.5% higher over the past 12 months.

The January 2016 CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Home Value Index also shows that property values across Australia’s combined capital cities increased by 0.9% after recording no change in December and a 1.5% drop in November. Quarter on quarter values were 0.6% lower.

Hobart led the monthly figures with a 4.7% jump in values, followed by Melbourne with a rise of 2.5% higher, Canberra up 2.8% and Sydney up 0.5%, while in the remaining four capital cities values were flat or down.

Four of Australia’s eight capital cities recorded falling values over three months with Sydney down 2,1% over the rolling quarter, Darwin down 1.4%, Adelaide down 0.9% and Melbourne down 0.1%. The strongest growth in home values over the quarter was 3% in Hobart.

Despite recording the largest annual decline in home values at 4.1%, Perth saw a rise of 1.7% over the three months to the end of January while they were up 0.8% in Brisbane and 1.2% in Canberra.

While still a high rate of annual growth, Sydney’s annual rate of capital gain is now at a 29 month low and has been progressively softening since peaking at 18.4% in July last year.

According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Melbourne’s housing market has been more resilient to slowing growth conditions which has propelled the annual growth rate to the highest of any capital city, with values 11% higher over the past 12 months.

‘Previously, during the height of the growth phase, there was a large separation between Sydney’s housing market, which was streaking ahead, and Melbourne’s, where the rate of capital gain was substantial but still well below the heights being recorded in Sydney. The latest data reveals Sydney’s housing market is now playing second fiddle to Melbourne’s, at least in annual growth terms,’ he said.

‘In fact, over the past six months, the performance gap between Sydney and Melbourne is stark. Sydney dwelling values have reduced by 0.6% between July last year and the end of January 2016, compared with a 3% rise across Melbourne,’ he explained.

He also pointed out that in the last six months both Brisbane and Canberra have seen values rise by 2% while Hobart values are 1.3% higher and Adelaide dwelling values have been virtually flat with a 0.1% rise.

The annual pace of growth across the Canberra market has been progressively improving, with values up 6% over the past 12 months, the strongest annual gain since November 2010.

‘The nation’s capital has benefitted from improved buyer confidence while rising demand has seen much of the housing oversupply absorbed, particularly across the detached housing market where gains have been the highest. While the pace of growth in dwelling values across the combined capitals has eased from the heights of mid last year, rental growth across the capital cities over the past 12 months has reduced further, with dwelling rents unchanged over the year,’ Lawless said.

However the cities are seeing their weakest rental markets conditions ever. Lawless said that there has not been a 12 month period when rents didn’t rise across the firm’s combined capitals index.

The data shows that weekly rents in Darwin were down 13.4% year on year and down 8.6% in Perth. They were down 0.7% in Brisbane and down 0.4% in Adelaide. The largest rental increases were in Sydney and Melbourne where weekly rents rose 1.4% and 2.1% respectively.

‘With dwelling values rising substantially more than rents in Sydney and Melbourne, this ongoing effect has created a compression in gross rental yields to the extent that gross yields in these cities are now only marginally higher than record lows,’ said Lawless.

‘As housing market activity moves out of its seasonally slow festive period, we are likely to have a much better gauge on how the overall housing market is performing in the New Year.
January tends to be a relatively quiet month across the housing market, however across the capital cities we estimate that there were approximately 16,500 dwelling sales contracted in January,’ he pointed out.

‘Additionally, while the number of auctions won’t return to normal until early February, the weighted average auction clearance rate across the capital cities over the final weekend of January was 61.6%, higher than what was recorded during December when the weighted average clearance rate was between 57% and 59% from week to week,’ he explained.

‘The bounce in dwelling values in January may provide an early sign that housing values across the combined capital cities are not likely to experience material decreases in 2016. We believe that the rate of capital gain across the combined capitals in 2016 is likely to be less than the 7.8% experienced in 2015, driven by a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne and continued softness in the Perth and Darwin markets,’ he added.

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