Oil prices rebound to climb to $80.49 per barrel

US Dollar:

Global investors are staring the week with one eye on a bit more risk and the other cautiously watch¬ing signs of the durability of the eurozone’s standby aid pact to relieve pressure on Greece. This has seen the dollar give up some of its gains made last week against the majors, as we have seen the buck dip down against both sterling and the euro. The dollars position against the pound has now seen it break back through the $.150 level, and a gain of over one and a half cents has seen EUR/USD head towards the $1.35 level this morning. This week we have the all important jobs data due Friday, and as normal this will be on traders minds for the rest of the week. The latest reports show the economy gained more jobs than expected in March. The economy is expected to have added roughly 200k jobs in March, which would be the largest gain since the recession hit. This may lead to a continued reversal of recent dollar strength posted over the last couple of weeks.

Data 13.30: Personal Spending 0.4% from 0.5%, personal Income 0.1% unchanged. 15.00: Geithner to speak.

Pound:

Sterling has managed to stem the losses seen late last week, but only with the help of the news of a rescue package in the eurozone for Greece, with saw appetite for risk spread across the financial markets. We did see cable shaken on Thursday, but risk is back on the table this morning as a gain of nearly two cents has now been posted to trade just under the $1.50 level. The decline seen against the euro which came as a result of the Greek rescue package announced on Thursday night has now be halted to a degree. We had seen GBP/ EUR fall from 1.1236 to fall down to below the 1.11 level, but now trade just above that mark. Sterling is likely to sway with its rivals against the dollar on Monday, while holding steady in a consolidation against the euro. Amid data this week, Tuesday’s final reading of the UK’s fourth quarter gross domestic product is expected to result in a second upward revision, economists say. With the economy clearly strengthening as the 4th quarter pro¬gressed, the increased data available for the end of the period could well lead to GDP growth being raised a little higher.

Data 09.30: Final Mortgage Approvals expected 48k unchanged, Net Lending to individuals expected 1.8B from 2.0Bn.

Euro:

Growing comfort that the European sovereign debt issues are under control is supporting commodity prices, in turn buying the material sector and increasing appetite for riskier transactions. This has seen the euro trade higher against the lower yielding currencies such as the dollar and yen, with EUR/USD taking back an impressive two cents since Friday last week. The single currency has halted its surge on sterling, but last weeks 1.5% gain towards the end of the week was well received. So far markets are showing a mildly positive reaction to the agreement among eurozone leaders to a standby aid package for Greece in alliance with the IMF. But the euros decline is not all bad news for the eurozone. The single currencies downward trend has been economically positive, according to European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny. It makes economic sense that the “overvalued” euro has retreated somewhat, he was cited as saying. Exporters in particular benefit from a weaker euro!
Data: 10.00: E/Zone Consumer Confidence expected –17 unchanged.

General:

• Oil prices are rebounding Monday on optimism that key data out the US later this week will show the worlds biggest economy is continuing its steady recovery. N.Y’s main contract climbed to $80.49.

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GBP/USD	1.5018
GBP/EUR	1.1128
EUR/USD	1.3501
GBP/JPY	139.14
GBP/AUD	1.6438
GBP/NZD	2.1126
GBP/ZAR	11.0887
GBP/CHF	1.5918
GBP/CAD	1.5918
GBP/SGD	2.1005
GBP/THB	48.53
GBP/HKD	11.6585 red-down; blue-up (snap shot)