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US weekly Unemployment Claims in the limelight



US Dollar:
American Weekly Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be in the limelight on April’s fools day, among figures from all over the world. The tension towards Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls continues to mount. The dollar, that had a rough beginning to the week, is correcting the losses. Will this trend continue? In the US, Chal¬lenger Job Cuts will give some general indication about the NFP. A bigger hint comes from the weekly Unem¬ployment Clams which are predicted to edge down from 442K to 440K. This figure has proved correct in predict¬ing the Non-Farm Payrolls. Later in the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 56.5 to 57 points, showing a continuing steady recovery. This release will shake the markets. Also in the US: Construction Spend¬ing is expected to drop by 1.1%, ISM Manufacturing Prices are predicted to rise to 67.3 points and two FOMC members will speak: James Bullard and William Dudley.
DATA: ISM Manufacturing, and Unemployment Claims


The Pound began the week with a rise above 1.51, but from there it was all downhill. GBP/USD dropped in waves and bottomed at 1.4798, just 18 pips above the all-important support line of 1.4780. The support and resistance liens have slightly changed since last week’s outlook. 1.4780 is the year-to-date low and also worked as a resistance line back in the spring of 2009 – this is a strong support line. On the other side of the range, 1.5110 provides a minor resistance line, being the past week’s high. Looking up, 1.5350 is already a major re¬sistance line. It supported the pair for some time, and the break of this started the big collapse. The lines above belong to the previous range – 1.5520 is a minor resistance line, and 1.5833 is a strong and far resistance line. Looking down, the next line of support under 1.4780 is only at 1.44, an important line that worked as a support line at the beginning of 2009 and also a few months later. Even lower, 1.4130 is the next significant line. The British economy is still struggling, a credit downgrade is looming and the uncertainty around the elections (as seen in the budget) are all weighing on the Pound.
DATA: Manufacturing PMI

The Euro had a bad week, losing an important support line. The upcoming week consists of many employment and inflation figures. The Euro began the week with a drift around the bottom of the range. It then made the big collapse below 1.3423, and all the way up to 1.3267, before making a partial recovery and closing at 1.3409. I’ve slightly modified the support and resistance lines from last week’s outlook. EUR/USD is now capped by 1.3435, an extension of the previous 1.3423 support line. This is a very strong resistance line. From the bottom, 1.3267, the past week’s low supports the Euro. This is also 50% of the range between 1.3435 to 1.3080, the next major support line.
DATA: No major data to be released today.

• Crude oil prices climbed to new 2010 trading highs on Wednesday in response a the falling US dollar, with US Light crude oil futures currently at $83.35 a barrel in Asian trading.


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GBP/USD 1.5104
GBP/EUR 1.1241
EUR/USD 1.3433
GBP/JPY 140.79
GBP/AUD 1.6407
GBP/NZD 2.1263
GBP/ZAR 11.0691
GBP/CHF 1.6075
GBP/CAD 1.5349
GBP/SGD 2.1051
GBP/THB 48.59
GBP/HKD 11.72 red-down; blue-up (snap shot)

These rates are for indication purposes only.


For more information or to get the latest spot rates contact:

John Paul Georgiou
Senior Foreign Exchange Broker
+44 (0)20 7959 6851