The analysis of official government projections by ippr shows that if the economy bounces back the gap between supply and demand could be equivalent to the entire housing demand of the populations of Birmingham, Liverpool and Newcastle combined.
The report shows how housing demand responds to three different economic scenarios and projects that even a faltering economy will lead to demand for more than 200,000 additional homes each year.
The best case scenario for the economy will require more than 280,000 extra homes each year. But if housing supply continues at the rate of the last twenty years, around 160,000 additions per year, the gap between the number of households and the number of available homes ranges from 255,000 and 1.2 million by 2025.
It says that London faces a housing gap of 325,000 homes, Yorkshire and Humberside a housing gap of 151,000 homes, the East of England a housing gap of 132,000 homes and the South East of England a housing gap of 77,000.
The East Midlands faces a housing gap of 66,000 homes, the West Midlands faces a gap of 28,000 homes, the North East of England faces a gap of 16,000 homes and the South West of England faces a gap of 7,000 homes. While the North West of England is the only region where supply could meet demand, with 40,000 extra homes compared to the number of households, due to the high rate of unoccupied premises at present.
The report shows that the social housing sector in particular will be under extreme pressure, no matter how the economy performs in future. If the economy performs poorly, up to 1.2 million households will priced out of the private sector and will need social housing. Even under good economic circumstances, an additional 550,000 households will need social housing by 2025. The report says that without a new housing policy, this demand will not be met.
There are currently around 4.5 million people waiting for social housing, some 1.8 million households, equivalent to 8% of all English households. Last year’s Spending Review saw the housing budget cut from £8.4 billion over the previous three year period to £4.4 billion over the next four years.
‘We can’t go on as we have done. Britain needs to build more homes. That’s not going to happen without a fundamental review of housing policy. This new analysis shows the serious scale of the problem,’ said Nick Pearce, ippr director.
‘If the rate of house building doesn’t radically increase, we face a growing housing crisis. Whether the economy performs well or poorly, a serious gap looms between housing supply and demand. Our ageing population and rising expectations for living standards are going to drive up demand but if there’s no change in housing policy it will seriously hold back supply,’ he added.
