Property prices in Jersey stable in 2013 but still around 6% lower than 2009

Residential property prices in Jersey have remained stable over the last 12 months with the Jersey House Price index falling by 1% on an annual basis, according to the latest data from the States of Jersey Statistics Unit.

However, it is the fourth consecutive year of decline after a 2% fall in 2010, and 1% fall in both 2011 and 2012. Since 2009 the Jersey House Price Index has fallen by 6%.

On a quarterly basis, property prices in the fourth quarter of 2013 were 5% lower than in the previous quarter and 3% lower than that recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2012.

The index report shows that the mean price of one bedroom flats had been essentially stable throughout 2008 and 2009 at just over £230,000. But a fall in 2010 and 2011 saw prices fall below £200,000 for the first time since 2007.

However, since then the mean price of one bedroom flats has increased, largely due to a reduced proportion of lower priced share transfer properties being sold. The mean price of one bedroom flats sold in 2013 at £210,000 was 2% higher than in 2012 and 6% higher than in 2011.
Throughout 2008 and 2009, the mean price of two bedroom flats also remained essentially stable at around £320,000. Following a slight dip in 2010, prices increased in each of the subsequent two years, taking the annual mean price of this property type to more than £340,000 in 2012, the highest level recorded for this property type since the introduction of the index.

However, in 2013 the mean price of two bedroom flats fell by £10,000 to around £330,000, a level similar to that previously seen in 2011. On a quarterly basis, the mean price of two bedroom flats was at around £340,000 for the first three quarters of 2013 before decreasing to around £300,000 in the final quarter of the year.

Two bedroom houses maintained a mean price of £400,000 in 2008 and 2009 and increased to £409,000 in 2010 before falling slightly each year ending up below £400,000 last year. Currently the annual mean price of £375,000 is the lowest recorded since 2007.

After a period of strong growth from 2006 to early 2008, the mean price of three bedroom houses remained stable throughout the next four years at around £520,000. But in the fourth quarter of 2011 they fell below £500,000 for the first time since 2007, and have remained below this level throughout 2012 and 2013.
Currently the mean price is around £484,000, some 5% lower than 2010 and 2011 and around 7% lower than the peak recorded in 2009, corresponding to a fall of almost £40,000.

The mean price of four bedroom houses has seen some volatility on a quarterly basis since 2008, however on an annual basis the average price has behaved more uniformly. From 2009 to 2012 the annual average price of this property type decreased in each year such that the calendar year average in 2012 was around £50,000 less than that recorded in 2009. In 2013 the average price has remained essentially unchanged at around £670,000.

On an annual basis, the total turnover of properties in 2013 was 3% lower than in 2012. The index report says that this decrease can be attributed to a smaller number of share transfer properties being sold in 2013, the turnover of such properties being about 140 fewer than in the previous year.

A larger number of properties were sold in the latter half of 2013 compared to in the first two quarters of the year, driven largely by an increase in the sale of three bedroom houses. Around double the number of three bedroom houses were sold in the third and fourth quarters compared with the first two quarters of the year.