Prime central London real estate market resilient, latest analysis indicates

In particular this real estate sector is continuing to attract international investors and interest grows as a result of a hiring spree in the financial and professional services sector, says the September 2010 market update report from Black Brick.
 
‘We disagree with the recent very negative predictions and believe some of the more recent UK housing data needs to be put in context. Certainly, it is premature to be talking with any sort of conviction about a looming crash in UK house prices,’ said Camilla Dell, Black Brick Managing Partner.
 
All the recent indices have pointed to price falls. But the report points out that July and August are the months in which most UK residents take their annual holiday. The summer is therefore traditionally a period of extremely low housing transaction volumes. ‘It is both difficult and dangerous to extract long term conclusions from such potentially misleading data points,’ it says.
 
‘Concerns about rising unemployment and the imminent prospect of higher taxes are certainly material headwinds to the wider market that are unlikely to abate any time in the near future. Moreover, the impact on prices of a lack of supply has been exacerbated due to low transaction levels,’ it continues.
 
‘But interest rates are likely to stay extremely accommodative for the foreseeable future. And if the Bank of England’s choice is between risking raising rates a little too early or a little too late, we believe they would rather leave rates lower for longer and be confident that consumption growth has stabilised. Low interest rates are therefore likely to ensure that any fall in house prices is limited,’ it adds.
 
Given the importance of overseas investors from the Middle East to the prime London market an additional factor this year has been the timing of the month long Muslim festival of Ramadan, it also points out.
 
‘Indeed, of the £62.4 million worth of property we have acquired on behalf of clients in 2010, the overwhelming majority continues to be on behalf of international owner occupiers rather than investors. We believe our figures are very representative of the prime central London property market as a whole and underline that even a sharp downturn in the global economy is unlikely to result in a wave of forced sellers who may depress prices,’ the report says.
 
Although it also says that there are specific areas within the central London property market that may be more vulnerable in the coming months such as secondary properties, locations on the periphery of prime and the very top end above £10 million where the demand/supply dynamics are less favourable.
 
‘Given the overall backdrop we don’t believe that there is the potential for any sharp short term gains in prime central London property but property has never been an asset class for short term speculation. What prime central London property does offer is diversification and a degree of protection away from traditional asset classes. Continued volatility in equity, bond and foreign exchange markets must surely only increase the attractions of prime central London property. Meanwhile the quality of London’s schools and the Capital’s importance as an international financial centre are the basis for London’s enduring attraction to international owner occupiers. Concluded Dell.