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UK house price sentiment index up for 13 months in a row

The monthly House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics, shows that overall 28.9% of households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, compared to just 3.5% who reported a fall.

This gave the HPSI a new record high reading of 62.7, up from the previous record high of 61.5 in March 2014.
Knight Frank said that the new high means that households are more confident that the price of their property is rising than at any time since the index began in early 2009.

Households in all 11 regions covered by the index reported that prices either rose or were unchanged in April, with those living in London perceiving that the value of their home had risen at the strongest rate 74.9, followed by households in the East of England at 68.2, the South East at 67.7, and the South West at 62.6.

The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, reached a new high of 75 this month, up from the previous record 74.9 in February. More than a half of respondents said they expected the value of their home to rise in 2014, with only 5.4% anticipating a decline.

Those who own their home outright are the most confident that prices will rise over the next year at 82.6 followed by mortgage borrowers 78.1, the index also shows.

Those aged over 55 were the most confident about future house price rises with the index reaching a record high of 85 in March, up from 83.6 the previous month. Those aged between 35 and 44 expected the next strongest growth at 74.9.

For the thirteenth consecutive month, households in every region expect the value of their home to rise over the next 12 months. Expectations rose to a record high in five of the 11 regions, led by London at 83.1. Record highs were also reached in the South East at 82, the East Midlands at 75.6, the South West at 74.9 and in Yorkshire and the Humber at 74.2.

‘The housing market is gaining momentum across many parts of the UK, although it is worth noting that households in the North East did not perceive that the value of their home rose over the last month, but rather reported that prices remained unchanged. This underlines the localised nature of the housing market across the country, which is moving at different speeds,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

‘The strong price growth seen in other areas including London and the South East is underpinned by a lack of supply, both new delivery of homes into the market as well as a lack of second-hand stock coming onto the market for sale, in the face of rising demand,’ she added.

According to Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, April’s survey is an early sign that we can expect to see mainstream house price indices reaching double digit annual growth rates in the coming months.

‘Supply constraints are clearly propelling property values in London and the South East, but all regions are feeling a boost from improving economic fundamentals and favourable funding conditions,’ he said.

‘Sentiment surveys were quick to pick up on the decisive shift in property price momentum during 2013, and can be expected to provide a valuable bellwether for twists and turns in the market over the course of 2014,’ he added.

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