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UK house prices fall slightly for second month in a row

But the Halifax index report points out that monthly movements can be volatile and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend with prices up 2.3% in the last three months.
 
This takes the average price to £177,648 and means that house price growth has now been steady in the range of 1.8% to 2.3% for the past 11 months as compiled by the leading lender.
 
The data also shows that prices in the three months to April were 8.5% higher than in the same three months a year earlier and this was marginally lower than in March when it was 8.7%.

However, both home sales and mortgage approvals have reduced in volumes. Home sales decreased by 5% for the first time in 10 months in March to 106,070 but still remain 29% higher than in March 2013.

In March mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales, fell for the second month in succession to 67,135. Approvals are 12% below their recent peak in January and at the same level as seen in September last year.

The difference between housing demand and supply of properties coming on to the market continues to grow. New buyer enquiries have remained steady so far in the first three months of 2014, but still significantly lower than in the second half of last year.

However, the number of home owners providing instructions to put their property on the market for sale declined for the third consecutive month.

‘Although mortgage approvals have now declined for two consecutive months and property transactions fell in March, on an annual basis housing demand still remains strong,’ said Stephen Noakes, morapriltgages director at the Halifax.

‘Housing demand continues to be supported by an economic recovery that is gathering pace, rising consumer confidence, low interest rates and wage growth finally beginning to outgrow consumer prices,’ he explained.

‘However, with supply of properties being slow to respond to market conditions, stronger demand in the past year has resulted in upward pressure on house prices,’ he added.

According to Oliver Atkinson, director of the online estate agents urbansalesandlettings pointed out that there was a time not long ago when two successive month on month falls in house prices might have caused the market to pause for thought.

‘Not now. This modest dip will not have much impact. It is a mild encumbrance but nothing that will halt levels of confidence that are fast approaching the stratospheric. In price terms the market is levelling off rather than fizzling out,’ he said.

‘But while prices have fallen slightly, demand for property is still very strong and continues to be driven by attractive mortgage rates and bullish borrowers. The quarterly growth figure of 2.3% is a more reasonable portrayal of the market's current position,’ he added.

He also pointed out that with the new mortgage rules in play, there may well be a further drop in mortgage approvals and transactions in the months ahead and it is important to remember that the overall house price picture can be misleading with London and the South East seeing more growth than Wales and north England.

Rob Thomas spokesperson for independent estate agents haart, believes the figures show there is not a danger of a housing price bubble. ‘Only London centric commentators believe there may be a housing bubble expanding in the UK. Fuelled by the global super rich, prime central London property prices started recovering in 2009 and now stand a third higher than at their previous peak,’ he explained.

‘According to our own national data, which most recently showed average UK property prices at £195,511, prices are still not recovered to their peak 2007 levels. This is supported by the latest Halifax house price index quarterly and monthly releases, which show that property prices remain lower in the first quarter of this year than at their peak more than seven years earlier in every region of the country including Greater London. The national average property price released by Halifax today is still well below 2007 levels,’ he pointed out.

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