According to the HPSI from Knight Frank and Markit Economics expectations for future price growth ticked up, but still remain substantially lower than May’s record high.
Some 28.9% of the 1,500 households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 5.3% reported a fall. This gave the HPSI a reading of 61.8, the seventeenth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50.
However, the reading was down on the 62.4 achieved in July and was the third consecutive month that households’ perceptions about house price growth have moderated. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the steeper the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling.
Households in all 11 regions covered by the index reported that prices rose in August, with those living in London perceiving that the value of their home had risen at the strongest rate at 71.4, followed by households in the South East at 68.4 and the East of England at 63.5.
The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, crept up in August to 72.8, up from July’s reading of 71.7.
‘While this suggests that households are expecting slightly bigger price rises than in July, the future HPSI remains well below its peak of 75.1 achieved in May,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.
The index also shows that households in every region expect the value of their home to rise, with those in the South East most confident about price increases at 79.3. This is the third consecutive month that those in the South East have reported large price expectations than Londoners.
The index also rose to a record high in the West Midlands to 74.3, signifying that households here are more confident that the value of their home will rise in the next 12 months than at any time since the index started in early 2009.
After three consecutive months of declining expectations for price growth in London, expectations for future price growth in the capital picked up to 77.7, although this remains well below the record high of 83.1 in April.
Some 5.9% of UK households said they planned to buy a property in the next 12 months, down from 6.7% in July. Looking at the figures on a regional basis reveals that some 9.3% of
Londoners plan to purchase a property in the next year, compared to just 3.4% in the West Midlands.
Those aged between 25 and 34 are the most likely to be considering a house purchase within the next 12 months at 9.9%, while those aged between 45 and 54 were the least likely to be buying a new home within the next year at 3.6%.
‘A third consecutive monthly decline in the house price sentiment index suggests that the price exuberance seen in some corners of the market is easing. This comes amid increasing discussion about interest rate rises, which are likely to materialise within the next six to nine months. Recent changes to the rules surrounding mortgage lending are also likely having an impact on market sentiment,’ said Gilmore.
‘Yet the index also highlights the regionalised nature of the housing market. While the HPSI reading for London, where average house prices have seen the biggest increase in the last year, showed a slight increase in August, this was far overshadowed by the rise seen in the North East and North West of England. These regions are starting to experience some level of sustained house price growth amid growing buyer confidence,’ she added.
According to Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, UK house price sentiment remains strong overall. But he pointed out that it has cooled in each month since hitting a post-crisis peak in May and the current period of decline is now the longest seen for almost four years.
‘Moreover, tighter mortgage conditions and the prospect of interest rate rises have acted to rein in households’ expectations of higher property values over the year ahead,’ he added.
