Such enquiries increased by 7% in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the same period in 2009 as a mortgage famine continues, according to the latest Distress Index from PPR Estates, a UK based property company.
PPR Estates again saw high levels of enquiries from distressed homeowners, landlords and businesses looking to sell their property in Q3 2010. It anticipates record numbers of enquiries in the last quarter of the year and first two quarters of 2011.
The latest data shows a continuation of trends including the ongoing difficulty property owners are having in finding buyers who have the necessary finance and want to make serious offers. The continuation of record low interest rates is the saving grace for many homeowners who would otherwise be struggling with arrears and potential repossession.
The full impact of public sector cuts will hit home in 2011 and are likely to see significant increases in unemployment levels and company liquidations as the private sector comes to terms with the pull back in Government funding. PPR Estates said that it believe this combination of factors will have a serious impact on already falling house price levels. It anticipates a further house price fall in 2011 of between 10 to 20% in real terms after inflation.
‘The data reveals the true extent of the change in sentiment around the overall housing market and the wider economy since the autumn. At the beginning of 2010 there was cautious optimism that the worst might be over with house prices rising due to a lack of supply, banks hinting they had money to lend again, possession numbers declining, and company liquidations and unemployment starting to fall back,’ said Nick Hopkinson, director of PPR Estates.
‘Now we find ourselves in a totally different situation with the housing market freezing again as quickly as a British airport runway. Any market price gains at the beginning of 2010 have now been completely wiped out. We predict a further 10 to 20% fall in house prices throughout 2011 in real terms. The resulting increase in distressed property enquiries looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future as sellers seek a quick sale which will ensure they can access their diminishing equity before it’s too late,’ he explained.
‘Those anticipating a spring thaw in the housing market are likely to be disappointed for a number of reasons. Firstly, the mortgage famine is set to continue for the foreseeable future. First time buyers are completely unable to get realistic finance as they currently need huge deposits and a perfect credit score to get a viable mortgage.Until the British banks massive international debt obligations are clarified and the new FSA lending rules confirmed it’s difficult to see where any more competitive mortgages are going to come from in 2011,’ he added.
He also warned that everyone has got complacently used to the 0.5% Bank Base Rate after nearly two years.‘This has probably been the biggest single reason why we haven’t seen nearly twice as many repossessions in 2010.The day when interest rates go back up again is getting closer. Suggestions that the Bank may need to put up interest rates in the first quarter of 2011 would inevitably push more households into arrears and subsequently repossession.Our distressed seller enquiries are just the tip of the iceberg currently,’ he concluded.
