Around half of the people in the United States who currently do not own a home intend to buy one within the next five years, up slightly from recent years, the latest research shows.
Some 10% say they want to become a home owner in the next 12 months, 39% in the next five years and 20% say they plan to purchase a home in the next 10 years, leaving just 28% who expect to remain renters or in other living arrangements for the foreseeable future.
The poll from Gallup indicates that housing demand will remain strong but financial realities such as having a stable source of income, having enough money for a down payment and the availability of affordable housing may hinder those intentions from becoming a reality.
Most non-home owners aged 55 and older do not plan to buy homes in the near future, but most younger adults do. Some 58% of those aged 35 to 54 expect to buy within the next five years, as do 52% of those aged 18 to 34.
An additional 31% of 18 to 34 year olds plan to buy within the next 10 years, leaving only 14% in this age group not thinking of buying a home in the next decade.
The buying intentions of people living in the Southern US within the next five years exceed the national average, while Eastern residents’ intent is below average, the poll also found.
Meanwhile, home owners largely intend to stay put. Some 64% of those already owning a property do not think they will sell it for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, 20% expect to sell within the next five years, including 4% in the next year, while 13% plan to sell within the next 10 years. These results are nearly identical to what Gallup found when it previously asked this question in 2013.
The data also suggests that younger homeowners may be more inclined than older homeowners to sell their home in the next five years.
The research found that home owners sell their homes for a variety of reasons, most commonly because of a change in life circumstances such as a new job, having children or after grown children move out of the house.
Some 49% of home owners who plan to sell their home within the next 10 years are looking to downsize, saying they plan to buy a smaller or less expensive home than they have now. Roughly three in 10 say they are looking to buy a bigger or more expensive home while most of the rest, 13%, indicate they will rent a new place to live.
Older home owners planning to sell are more likely to say they will buy a smaller and less expensive house, while younger home owners are more likely to be looking to purchase a larger home.
‘Home ownership remains an aspiration for the vast majority of Americans who do not currently own a home. This indicates that the market for real estate sales should remain strong,’ the Gallup report says.
‘However, these results also indicate that demand for homes may not keep up with supply. A higher percentage of non-home owners plan to buy homes in the next five years than home owners plan to sell homes. The two percentages do not need to match for supply to equal demand because there are roughly three home owners for every two non-home owners. At the same time, most home owners who sell their home will also need to find a new place to live, further adding to the demand for real estate,’ it explains.
‘Some of the shortfall in housing supply can be made up by new construction, which might indicate a construction boom is on the horizon, if not already underway. But if real estate demand continues to outpace real estate supply, home prices will continue to rise and could rise beyond what most Americans can afford. To the extent that happens, many would be home owners may not be able to achieve their goal of owning a home,’ it concludes.
