But there are regional differences and monthly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest and the NAR Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, inched up 0.2% to 101.7 from a downwardly revised 101.5 in October, but is 1.6% below November 2012 when it was 103.3.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market is flattening. ‘We may have reached a cyclical low because the positive fundamentals of job creation and household formation are likely to foster a fairly stable level of contract activity in 2014,’ he explained.
‘Although the final months of 2013 finished on a soft note, the year as a whole will end with the best sales total in seven years,’ he said, adding that the market still favours buyers in most of the country, but higher mortgage interest rates in combination with strong price gains mean a more modest growth in values is expected in 2014.
The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.7% to 82.6 in November, but is 1.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell 3.1% to 100.6, but is 0.% higher than November 2012. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.3% to an index of 116.1 and are 0.1% above a year ago. The index in the West increased 1.8% to 95, but is 8.7% below November 2012, in part from inventory constraints.
Total existing home sales this year are expected to reach 5.1 million, a gain of almost 10 percent over 2012, but should stay at that level in 2014, and then rise to 5.3 million in 2015.
According to NAR the national median existing home price for all of 2013 will be close to $197,300, up nearly 12% from 2012, but is projected to rise at a more moderate pace of 5% to 5.5% in 2014, and grow another 4% in 2015.
