Scotland homelessness could worsen considerably by 2040 thanks to a lack of affordable housing, a report by law firm Shakespeare Martineau has warned.
The study forecasted a 90% increase in homelessness applications to more than 4,100 annually, while at least 7,000 households could be forced into temporary accommodation – an 89% surge.
To meet the burgeoning demand, at least 352,500 homes need to be constructed across the country by 2040.
Edinburgh and Lothians leads the way in housing need, with demand for more than 111,500 homes. In contrast, South of Scotland demands the least, with a requirement of 16,830 properties.
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “There is a pressing need for strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors to address the growing demand for affordable housing, as well as a real opportunity for purpose-built homes tailored for last-time buyers. By capitalising on this, we not only cater to the specific needs of this demographic but also unlock the potential to release much-needed family homes back into the market.
“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space; helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”
By 2040, Scotland’s 16+ population is expected to grow by 4% to more than 4.7 million people. Notably, Edinburgh and Lothians emerges as the fastest-growing region – anticipating 15% growth to more than 871,000 – while Highlands and Islands will witness a 3% decline in its total population.
Grant Docherty, partner and head of Shakespeare Martineau in Scotland, said: “This is a wake-up call. We cannot allow these projections to become a reality.
“Scotland abolished the Right to Buy scheme, which gave council house tenants the opportunity to buy their rented home at a discounted price, in 2016 – leading to a 4% increase in the country’s social-rented homes stock in the six years that followed.
“However, despite this, these figures show that it is crucial the public sector and housing associations work together to provide stable, accessible and affordable accommodation. The government also needs to ensure support services for vulnerable groups are properly funded.
“The cost of doing nothing will be catastrophic – not just for the individuals affected but for society as a whole.”
