The housing market in England and Wales showed signs of stabilisation in January following months of subdued activity, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). The organisation’s monthly survey indicated that estate agents and surveyors were reporting less negative sentiment across key market indicators.
A net balance of 35% of Rics members expect an increase in house sales over the next 12 months, marking the most optimistic outlook since December 2024. The index measures the difference between the share of agents reporting rising and falling optimism.
Demand and sales activity
Demand from new buyers remained in negative territory, with a net balance of -15% of respondents reporting decreased inquiries in January. However, this represented an improvement from -21% in December and -29% in November. The volume of agreed sales also showed improvement, with a net balance of -9%, the least negative reading since June 2025.
The house price gauge stood at -10%, up from a low of -19% in October, with more agents still reporting falling rather than rising prices over the past three months. Rics described this as a “potential turning point” for house prices.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, said: “There are early signs that market conditions may be improving after a challenging period, although activity levels are still subdued, meaning any recovery is likely to be gradual.”
Impact of autumn budget uncertainty
Market activity slowed considerably in the months leading up to the autumn budget at the end of November due to uncertainty over potential property tax changes. Concerns included possible modifications to stamp duty and capital gains taxes on some primary residences, though neither measure was included in the final budget.
Rubinsohn noted that future market momentum “will depend heavily on the trajectory of mortgage rates and broader macro confidence over the coming months.”
Housebuilder performance
Major property developers reported subdued activity during the period leading up to the budget. Barratt Redrow, the UK’s largest housebuilder, reported a 13.6% drop in underlying pre-tax profits to £199.9m in the six months to the end of December and cut its dividend on Wednesday.
The company completed 7,444 homes during this period and expects to complete between 17,200 and 17,800 homes across the full year. In its results, Barratt Redrow stated that “consumer confidence remained low, economic and political uncertainty was high, and affordability challenges remained an issue for many customers.”
Bellway completed 4,702 homes in the six months to the end of January, a 2.7% increase from 4,577 in the same period in 2025. The company noted that customer demand throughout the autumn “was impacted by uncertainty ahead of the government’s budget.”
Outlook
The data suggests the housing market in England and Wales may be stabilising after a period of uncertainty, though activity levels remain below historical norms. Market participants continue to cite concerns about economic uncertainty, interest rates and cost of living pressures as factors affecting buyer confidence.
