House prices in areas of UK with largest falls in unemployment see biggest gains
Areas with the largest falls in unemployment in the UK have seen houses prices soar by almost £100,000 in the past decade, new research has found.
Whilst the 10 areas with the highest unemployment rates recorded average house price growth of just 10%, less than half the national average of 25% since 2007, according to the research from Lloyds Bank.
The 20 areas that have recorded the sharpest falls in unemployment have, on average, seen house price gains of almost double the national average over the past decade at 48% against the Great Britain average of 25%.
Meanwhile, the 10 areas with the biggest unemployment declines have seen an even larger house price rise, averaging 53%, between 2007 and 2017.
The best performing area amongst the 20 largest unemployment fallers is the London borough of Waltham Forest, which has experienced a 92% house price rise over the past decade from £233,779 to £449,384.
Those areas that have seen the best improvements in unemployment have, on average, outperformed the national average in terms of house price gains, but there are exceptions. For example, a number of local areas in the North West feature amongst the top 20 in terms of unemployment performance but some have recorded only modest house price gains.
These include Liverpool with 8% growth from £144,135 to £155,100, Halton, up 7% from 139,580 to £149,243 and Knowsley, up 5% from £134,231 to £141,075. But the research report points out that despite recording sharp falls in unemployment, these areas have all had well below average employment rates over the past 10 years.
Those areas that have performed worst in unemployment terms over the past decade, either recording very small falls or a rise, have, on average, performed broadly in line with the national average in house price term at 26% against 25%.
Seven of the 10 worst unemployment performers, however, experienced house prices gains that were below their region’s average, while the 10 areas with the highest unemployment rates recorded average house price growth of just 10% since 2007, less than half the national average of 25%.
‘A number of factors have contributed to mounting pressures on house prices across the country in recent years, however, falling unemployment and the creation of more jobs are key drivers as this research highlights,’ said Lloyds Bank mortgage director Andrew Mason.
‘A strengthening job market helps to boost confidence, puts more cash into customers’ pockets and also makes it easier to secure a mortgage. These developments all help to increase the demand for homes, which leads to increasing property prices,’ he pointed out.
‘However, in the recent recession of 2008/2009 house prices fell in most areas of the country even where the unemployment rate rose only marginally. This highlights other contributing drivers of price growth, besides the labour market, such as affordability and the supply-demand balance,’ he added.
The research also shows that the 20 areas which have seen the largest falls in unemployment since 2007 recorded an overall average price increase of £97,530 or 48% to £302,055. Eight of these local authorities are in London, with three of them, Waltham Forest, Newham and Southwark, seeing average home values rise by at least 75% in the past decade.
Over the same period, these 20 areas recorded an average decline in unemployment claimants of 2.9% from 4.4% to 1.5%, nearly two and a half times the national decline of 1.2% from 2.4% to 1.2%.
In contrast, the 20 areas with the poorest unemployment performance, where unemployment claimant counts fell by an average of 0.2% since 2007, average house prices increased by 26%, which is closely in line with the national average of 25%. Most of these areas are in the South with 12 in the South East and five in the South West.
Indeed, the majority of the areas in the South East, nine of the 12, have recorded price rises below the regional average of 33% while in Britain as a whole, average house prices grew by 25% or £49,557 over the past 10 years, whilst the average unemployment rate was 2.8%.