The UK may be past the peak of the virus outbreak according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but the return to normality is likely to be a slow process.
This is reflected by two developers returning to work today in Propect Homes and Higgins.
Both may be back at work, but much of Higgins’ staff are still working from home, while it looks like Prospect will have a reduced workforce on site.
Taking precautionary measures only seems sensible in the current environment, so I don’t think you can expect the economy to return all guns blazing for months.
The UK government is faced with the dilemma of keeping things closed for longer and taking an economic hit, or opening up our schools, bars and restaurants and seeing a second spike in COVID-19 cases.
It’s a difficult situation to effectively govern, so hopefully we are able to strive a balance between opening things up and protecting people’s lives.
Closing down the economy isn’t sustailable, but as businesses reopen they will surely embrace remote solutions for some time, if they hadn’t already.
Some jobs however, like constructing homes, are both incredibly necessary and can’t be done entirely remotely, so firms have the challenge of restarting productivity while staying safe.
The impacts of this difficult time were discussed by Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, last week.
He warned that we are likely to see the biggest fall in GDP since the Second World War, as the lockdown has curbed supply and demand, reduced incomes and increased uncertainty about the future.
He also said the current situation could be “more fodder for nationalists”, as “populist leaders are already using the crisis as a platform to fire up their base and consolidate their positions.”
I hope he’s wrong on the latter point, but I suspect he’s right.
Ryan Bembridge, Editor, PropertyWire
