I’m disappointed the Americans opted to re-elect Donald Trump as US President this week, given the combustible nature of his first term in office.
While many could focus on the nature of the man himself – the convictions, his incitement of a riot on January 6th 2020, his controversial comments about women – I’m going to focus on his policies.
Covid & facts
His management of the covid-19 pandemic left a lot to be desired, as he was slow to respond and promoted treatments denounced by scientists. Given this precedent, it’s concerning the US Presidency will once again be held by someone who plays so fast and loose with facts.
Trump & Putin
Trump has a history of praising Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, calling him a “genius” and “savvy” for invading Ukraine, which raises the question of whether the US will stop supporting Ukraine in its war effort after Trump’s inauguration on January 20 2025.
Trump has pledged to “end” the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming President again. If this means handing territory to Russia it would embolden Putin’s regime, giving Russia the green light to take more territory in future.
Knock-on effects
Given Trump’s brand of right-wing isolationist politics, there’s also the question of whether he could embolden other right wing governments across the world. A divided world is surely more prone to splinter and launch conflicts against one another.
Inflation=political upheaval
The context of the US Election seems critical to Trump’s victory.
Surging inflation was the straw that broke the camel’s back in the UK back in July, when Keir Starmer’s Labour defeated Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, and it’s been difficult for any incumbent leader to keep their job after a period where day-to-day costs increased.
It’s disappointing the US electorate seems to have blamed much of this inflation on Joe Biden’s government, when it can’t all be laid at his door. The pandemic meant interest rates were kept at low levels across the world, fuelling inflation, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted costs to rise.
Trump’s claim that he can “end inflation” comes at a time where the US inflation rate has already been reduced to 2.4%, so he could feasably take credit for something that’s happening anyway.
The irony is Trump’s policies should do more to heighten US inflation than if the country had opted for the Democrat nominee Kamala Harris. Trump has proposed launching a tariff of at least 10% on most foreign goods, rising to 60% from China. This will surely cause the cost of goods to rise, pushing up prices for people in the US.
Conclusion
Given all these factors, it’s difficult to feel positive about Trump’s America Part 2, though at least according to Knight Frank his presidency could drive more interest in the Prime London property markets.
After the relative calm of the Biden years, it’s set to be a dramatic four years in the US following the return of Donald Trump.
