As I sit at my laptop writing this I can look out of my window and see the removal men busily carrying boxes and furniture as my neighbours on one side are moving today. On the other side the For Sale sign indicates that they will be doing so soon.
It is a sign that the market is moving, people are buying and selling. Indeed these two examples are interesting. One is a couple in their late 40s whose children have left home and they are downsizing from a detached four bedroom house to a two bedroom flat near their elderly parents.
The others, who will be moving in the first week of November, are a retired couple who want to be near their grandchildren to help with child care. They are going to rent until the find their next property.
These are people who are moving because they have a change in circumstances, but they could have held tight, they could have waited. The middle aged couple are moving as they have found the flat they want to buy in the right location. The elderly couple want to be free from having to sell so that when the right property comes along they are ready to go for out without having to worry about selling as well as buying.
To me this is a reflection of what is happening in the housing market, it is moving, perhaps slowly, but also the reasons for moving are often more human than we might think, it is about life, about location and about what is right on an individual basis.
It also reflects what we are currently seeing in the housing market in terms of prices, sales and activity. If you want to move, you find the right property at the right price and there are compelling reasons to go for it, then you will.
That is why the market is slower, there needs to be a real reason, people are not moving to make money, they are not moving because they don’t like their neighbours (I hope), but they are doing so for solid reasons. This is reflected in the latest industry figures.
Out today, Rightmove’s latest asking price index shows that they have recorded their lowest monthly rise since October 2008, up just 0.6% month on month and are 0.2% below a year ago and the number of sellers coming to market was down by 13.5% compared to this time last year.
Rightmove says that sluggish prices and the imminent Brexit deadline have deterred speculative sellers but I would argue that speculative sellers have not been a big part of the market for a long time. People usually move because they want to.
The Home.co.uk index also shows a slow market with asking prices up 0.3% month on month and 0.1% year on year, backing up the Rightmove index trend and the national home mover report from TwentyCi shows that the housing market was slow but steady in the third quarter of 2019.
House prices in England and Wales are set to dip marginally by 0.3% over the next three months from October to December 2019, according to the latest forecast from reallymoving. As buyers register for quotes for home move services typically 12 weeks before their purchase completes, reallymoving says it is able to provide an accurate three month property price forecast based on the purchase price agreed.
Overall, it says that the housing market continues to defy expectations with price growth remaining stable in the short term. Average house prices are on course to increase by 1% in October before falling by 0.3% in November and 1.1% in December.
It points out that the impact of a UK departure from the European Union on 31 October, with or without a deal, will not be evident until sales agreed in October and November complete in January and February 2020.
Between now and then people like those around me will buy and sell, there will be excitement, disappointment and uncertainty. But that is life.
Ray Clancy
Editor Property Wire
The content of this newsletter is for subscribers and should not be reproduced without permission.
