The UK property market has demonstrated relative stability despite geopolitical tensions and rising mortgage rates linked to the US-Iran conflict, according to data from major property indices.
Market indicators show mixed signals across different regions and price segments, with buyer demand down 7% compared to the same period in 2025, though this decline partly reflects the exceptionally strong market of last year when buyers rushed to complete purchases before stamp duty changes.
Regional variations emerge
Data reveals significant regional divergence in market performance. According to Home.co.uk, London prices have declined whilst sales stock has surged across the country, creating what the firm describes as “twin severe headwinds of reduced demand and increased supply.”
The average property is taking just one day longer to sell compared to a year ago, suggesting that motivated buyers and sellers continue to transact despite broader economic uncertainty. This pattern mirrors recent shifts in the rental market, where regional performance has varied considerably.
Mortgage rates impact buyer sentiment
Rising borrowing costs have dampened consumer confidence, with the GfK headline index falling to its lowest level since late 2023. Mortgage rates increased sharply in March following heightened concerns about energy prices and inflation expectations, though rates have begun to drift lower after Easter.
Halifax reported that house prices dipped in March, noting that “concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn led to a rise in mortgage rates, reducing confidence that interest rates will be cut this year.”
RICS data showed a net balance of -43% for near-term house price expectations in March, down sharply from -19% the previous month, indicating anticipated downward pressure on values over the coming three months.
Market outlook remains uncertain
Industry analysts present divergent views on the market’s trajectory. Home.co.uk predicts a looming market correction, stating that “serious vendors will cut their asking prices to sell and others will abandon their sale, perhaps turning to the rental market despite its current poor performance.”
The money markets have priced in two base rate increases before year-end, with potential for additional hikes as the Bank of England addresses inflation. This comes as Rightmove forecasts modest profit growth for 2026 despite market headwinds.
Nationwide offered a more measured assessment, noting that “the UK economy and housing market have proved remarkably resilient in recent years,” suggesting any near-term softening could prove short-lived if energy prices normalise.
Zoopla maintains its forecast of 1% to 1.5% annual price growth nationally, with the North-South divide in both sales speed and price growth expected to persist. The firm noted that households requiring relocation have continued to find buyers at similar rates to last year.
Stock levels and transaction volumes
Property stock levels remain elevated compared to recent years, contributing to the slower pace of price growth. The combination of increased supply and slightly lower demand has created conditions favouring buyers, particularly in areas where affordability pressures are less acute.
Industry figures emphasise the importance of local market conditions over national trends, with significant variation in performance across different regions and price brackets. Properties priced competitively for their local markets continue to attract buyers, whilst those priced optimistically face extended marketing periods.
The market faces continued uncertainty dependent on the duration of geopolitical tensions, energy price movements, and the Bank of England’s monetary policy response. Most analysts agree that professionally advised sellers pricing realistically can still achieve transactions, though the volume of activity may remain below 2025 levels throughout the year.
