England is on track to fall short of the Government’s housebuilding target by more than 660,000 homes over the next five years, according to new forecasts from Savills.
The property consultancy projects that new home completions in England will average 167,500 annually through to 2029/30, significantly below the Government’s target of 300,000 homes per year. This would result in a total of 837,500 new homes built during the five-year period, leaving a substantial gap of 662,500 properties.
Completions decline following Help to Buy end
Recent data shows new home completions fell by 4.1% to 190,602 in the year to March 2025. This represents a 10.2% decline over the two years since the Help to Buy scheme concluded, highlighting the impact of reduced government support on housing delivery.
Savills anticipates building numbers will decline further in the coming years, dropping to just over 150,000 homes in both 2026/27 and 2027/28 before potentially recovering.
Planning constraints and affordability pressures
Emily Williams, Director of Residential Research at Savills, said: “England’s housing delivery has proven to be reasonably resilient in the face of recent economic headwinds, but the underlying picture is becoming increasingly challenging.”
She cited low levels of planning consents and starts as creating a thinner pipeline of homes under construction, whilst affordability pressures, higher interest rates and rising development costs are constraining both demand and viability. These challenges echo broader issues affecting the property market, including concerns about estate agent transparency and market confidence.
First-time buyer support could boost delivery
Williams suggested that a first-time buyer support scheme could materially improve delivery rates. Under such a scenario, completions could rise to 198,000 homes per year by 2028/29, which would maintain housebuilding at the average rate seen over the last decade despite current headwinds, though still falling short of the Government’s 300,000 target.
The Government has recently launched a consultation on a new first-time buyer ISA to replace the Lifetime ISA, a move that could provide additional support to first-time buyers and smaller developers entering the market.
Outlook
The forecast shortfall raises questions about housing supply constraints and their potential impact on property prices and affordability across England. With planning approvals remaining constrained and construction costs elevated, the gap between housing targets and delivery appears set to widen in the near term.
