A decade-long analysis of Autumn Budgets reveals that political and economic certainty drives prime London property sales, with the Johnson-Sunak administration producing the strongest market performance whilst current Labour policies face headwinds.
Research by Beauchamp Estates examined sales of properties above £5 million and £10 million across Prime Central London (PCL) during four-month periods before and after Autumn Budgets from 2015 to 2025, tracking market responses across different governments.
Cameron-Osborne era shows strongest growth
The 2015 Autumn Budget under Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne generated a 30% rise in sales volume for properties above £5 million, from £951.7 million (105 deals) pre-Budget to £1.24 billion (114 deals) post-Budget. Properties above £10 million saw a 65% increase, rising from £425.5 million (25 deals) to £700 million (35 deals).
According to the analysis, buyers rushed to complete transactions before the additional 3% Stamp Duty surcharge on additional homes took effect on 1 April 2016.
May-Hammond period shows muted response
The 2017 Autumn Budget under Theresa May and Philip Hammond produced more modest results. Sales above £5 million rose just 15% from £826.7 million (85 deals) to £948.5 million (97 deals). The £10 million-plus segment declined 10% by deal volume, from 29 to 26 transactions.
The research attributes this weaker performance to political uncertainty following the June 2017 election, which resulted in a hung Parliament and minority Conservative government.
Johnson-Sunak budgets boost market
The 2021 Autumn Budget under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak saw £5 million-plus sales rise 26%, from £1.32 billion (144 deals) to £1.66 billion (165 deals). The £10 million-plus segment increased 32%, from £656.8 million (42 deals) to £865 million (47 deals).
The September 2022 ‘Mini-Budget’ under Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng caused a 24% drop in overall sales, from 177 homes to 135. However, the £10 million-plus market rose 40%, from £738.4 million (44 deals) to £1.03 billion (50 deals), as younger ultra-wealthy buyers capitalised on prices that had fallen 19% between 2014 and 2022.
Recent budgets show continued challenges
The 2023 Autumn Budget under Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt saw £5 million-plus sales decline 5% from £1.46 billion (147 deals) to £1.39 billion (137 deals). The £10 million-plus segment fell 12%, from £805.6 million (47 deals) to £706 million (37 deals).
Around the 2024 Autumn Budget under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, sales above £5 million dropped 16% from 148 to 124 deals, whilst transactions ahead of Budget announcements in the £10 million-plus segment fell 25% from 51 to 38. The research attributes this decline primarily to the abolition of the UK non-dom tax regime announced in the Spring 2024 Budget under the previous Conservative government.
The 2025 Autumn Budget period showed mixed results. Overall sales value rose 14% from £1.1 billion to £1.26 billion, but deal volume fell 17% from 116 to 96. The ultra-prime segment above £10 million increased 68% by value, from £496 million (27 deals) to £833 million (34 deals), with international buyers viewing London property as offering value at prices 24% below 2014 peaks.
Uncertainty cited as key factor
Jeremy Gee, Managing Director of Beauchamp Estates, stated: “Our detailed analysis of the Autumn Budgets over the past 11 years clearly shows that domestic UK and international buyers of property in London like political, economic and taxation certainty.”
He added: “It is our firm belief that it is not tax that stops a buyer moving. It is a buyer not knowing what the tax will be that kills a sale.”
The analysis identified Budget leaks and mixed messages as causing sales drops of between 5% and 17% in the London property market. The research highlighted three policies as having the biggest negative impacts: George Osborne’s Stamp Duty rate increases, the Truss ‘mini-budget’, and Jeremy Hunt’s abolition of the non-dom regime.
Looking ahead, Beauchamp Estates suggested that ending Stamp Duty could enable London property sales volumes to rise between 20% and 30%, though the firm expects Stamp Duty to remain unchanged with possible Capital Gains Tax adjustments instead. The analysis comes as industry stakeholders call for policy clarity across multiple areas of the property sector.
